It’s taken me a while to catch up with Alun Davies’ declaration that he wants to stand for Labour in the ancestral home of Bevan, Foot and Llew Smith. See here for his full statement, courtesy of the Western Mail’s man in the Bay David Williamson.
So far so interesting. At first glance, it looks like a man looking for a way out, following in the footsteps of: Lorraine Barrett, Jane Davidson, Rhodri Morgan – all of whom have already announced they won’t be seeking re-election in 2011. After all, Labour have fought the Law(s), and the Law won three times now.
But Alun isn’t stupid. Here’s 3 reasons why Alun Davies might have increased his chances re-election.
1. Trish Law’s appeal is based on her work in the constituency, much more than her work in the Assembly chamber. Alun’s strengths are in the Politics more than the people. If he could make the contest about political power, rather than likeability, he would be in a strong position.
2. The constituency is one of the few where the local paper a) does politics, and b) covers a patch that pretty much matches the constituency. So someone with Alun’s flair for getting headlines, could well set the agenda.
3. His current seat wasn’t nailed on. Labour would be odds on to retain one seat in M&W, but there’s no guarantee AD would have been top of the list. And no list seat is ever 100% safe – ask this man.
And don’t forget, for all the talk of Labour in retreat, they haven’t fallen below 30% in any election in the area. Even if they are currently shedding councillors at an alarming rate, there remains a large Labour vote.
Now, whether attacking Trish Law – a woman no-one usually has a bad word to say about – was the right tactics…? But the strategy was sound, and Davies’ choice of action has probably increased his chances of being back in the Bay in 2011.
Unless, of course, the local Labour Party pick someone else to contest the seat.
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if he continues his campaign how he has started i.e. in the gutter, he doesnt stand a chance. i thin its more likely to be as follows in his mind:
1. would rather be in westminster
2. believeslab wont beat dai davies in 2011
3.stand against trish – loses clearly but runs an effective campaign
4. wins westminster seat in 2015
or, the other possibility is he is deluded – certainly yesterday when he seemed to suggest that the people of b.g. want their politicians to spend all their time in the bubble rather than dealing with the problems of the area, is thinking seemed a little wonky.
But will he get the nomination in the first place?