Good evening, and welcome to Freedom Central’s Live Results Service for tonights count. We are expecting results from across Wales from around 8.30pm this evening. We will do our very best to get all the information to you as it happens. Turnout across Wales is 30.5%, down from 2004, but up from 1999, when the elections were also held without local elections in Wales. This is without doubt the most interesting election in many years, with a variety of potential outcomes. We will know soon enough.
19.19 – Counting now well underway, early reports show Labour vote holding up better than expected in their heartlands but still significantly down and suffering badly elsewhere. Expected that Welsh Lib Dems will win several constituencies, a first time achievment in European elections. More soon.
19.34 – Rumours of good LD swing in Merthyr, Swansea West. BBC predicting Nick Griffin expected to be elected in North West England.
19.48 UKIP crying fowl on BBC about folded ballot papers issue. Suggests they are expecting fall in vote, at least in SE England.
19.59 – Rumours that Plaid have failed to beat Labour in Caerphilly, a key target if they are to overtake Labour in Wales wide vote share
20.10 – Nick Bourne and Adam Price have both just told the BBC they expect to push Labour into third across Wales
20.29 – Labour winning constituencies across South Wales, which means would have to do very badly elsewhere to lose top spot
21.00 – Lib Dems expected to clearly win Cardiff Central, up from third last time, Labour pushed into 3rd.
21`.06 – BBC reporting they have been told Nick Griffin will not win seat
21.11 – results beginning to come in from the constituencies – Strong 2nd to the Tories in Brecon and Radnor, trong 3rd in Cardiff South and Penarth. Strong Tory win in Cardiff North. Strong PLaid result in their heartlands.
21.43 – Lib Dems hold marginal final seat in North East England
22.27 – Multiple sources saying Tories will top the poll – which is clearly unprecedented. BBC and figures coming in would suggest a narrow UKIP win of fourth seat at this stage
22.29 – Ceredigion result shows a 5.3% swing to Welsh Lib Dems from PLaid from 2004, a year from a General Election. This would suggest that if swing repeated at GE, Mark Williams will be re-elected with a majority of over 1500.
22.35 – Narrow loss to Labour in Swansea West, a couple of hundred votes.
22.47 – Only 176 votes behind Labour in Newport East, a great Lib Dem result.
23.29- FC’s projection – Con 21%, Lab 20.2%, Plaid 18.5%, UKIP 12.94%, WLD 10.67 TBC
23.46 – Confirmed, Tories 21%,Labour 20%, Plaid 18%, UKIP 13%, WLD, 11%. UKIP take 4th seat. There will be official comment from the party soon, but the initial thinking is that we have performed very well in our held and target seats, but the UKIP tide in our dead areas was just too much to withhold. Unlikely to be seen as particularly bad news for us. This will instead be targeted at Labour, and to a lesser extent at Plaid, who clearly overhyped themsleves in recent weeks, and some in the party will feel they may have been damaged by association with Labour.
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