Last week’s election was a strange one in Wales. Certainly the strangest one that I have ever experienced. The outcome was no less strange than the campaign. The Tories topping the poll, a country that has relied on the benefits of the EU for ten years electing an MEP who wants full withdrawal, a Labour vote obliterating.
For a whole generation, this was the most exciting election they have ever seen. So now a couple of days have passed, I thought it was time to make an assessment of what the results mean for the main parties, and for the coming General Election.
Labour.
Labour were clearly the biggest losers of the night. I feel very sorry for Lisa Stevens, who when selected in second place would have felt that she was all but guaranteed a seat in Brussels. But I think there is more comfort for Labour in Sunday’s result that many realise. As I watched the constituency results come in from across Wales, one thing became very clear to me. The Labour meltdown was very concentrated outside their heartlands. The results in Plaid’s publicly stated medium term Assembly targets provided much more cheer for Labour. Neath, Caerphilly, Islwyn, as well as seats like Swansea East and most of the other valleys seats remained clear Labour victories. It was a drubbing, particularly in Tory/Labour marginals, but Labour strategists must be pleased that some of the individual, constituency results were not far worse.
Plaid Cymru.
Plaid turned a reasonable result into a disaster by a very poor media strategy in the days running up to the election. The hype and spin about beating Labour and taking two seats was off the chart. Even as late as 8pm on Sunday night, Adam Price was telling BBC UK that they had pushed Labour into third place. I was looking at the Caerphilly result at the time and saying “No you have not.” If this result causes problems amongst Plaid activists, it will be the party leadership’s own fault. What was in fact a steady result, could easily be turned into a disappointment which many Members may blame on association with Labour.
Tories.
The Conservatives played a far more sophisticated media game in the run up to the elections than Plaid Cymru. They espoused ambition to take two seats but privately briefed that they did not expect to. Consequently, moving into first place across Wales gave them a far bigger media hit coming out of Sunday night. They have also been careful to say that this result is only a step forward, and not a victory. A solid result, that so far at least does not appear to have made the Tories complacent. They seem to accept that it is more symbolic at this stage than a guarantee of huge gains in the General Election.
UKIP
Obviously a phenomenal result for UKIP, against the backdrop of the UK as a whole. Many in Labour will however feel confident of taking the seat back in five years time, particularly if they are back in opposition at Westminster. UKIP have a long way to go to prove their projection of success in the Assembly elections, but they share the moment of Sunday with the Tories.
Welsh Lib Dems.
While on the face of it, it was a huge disappointment not to win a seat, closer analysis of the figures show much more to be cheery about. Results in Cardiff, Swansea and Newport all showed that it is in fact possible for the Welsh Lib Dems to persuade our supporters in other elections to come across to vote in European elections too. It is clear that almost without exception, where we worked on the ground in this election, we got strong results, it was the UKIP tide in our dead areas that did for us. Swansea West and Newport East both saw us coming within a couple of hundred votes from Labour, a great sign for the General Election, while the massive swing from Plaid in Ceredigion will provide huge optimism for Mark Williams and his team. If the swing is repeated at a General Election, his majority would top 1500. B+R, while won by the Tories saw a much improved result on last time, suggesting the effect of Kirsty becoming leader is beginning to show. Montgomeryshire was less good, but by no means was it the disaster that our opponents predicted.
All in all for the party, it could of course have been better, but in the context of a disappointing UK result (Wales was the only UK Euro constituency where our vote increased) and some good solid progress in many areas, party history will probably paint election 09 as steady on the tiller.
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