I hate counts at the best of times but at least for the most part they are over within hours of the close of polls. The European Elections are different and we have all been forced to wait three days until we find out what has happened.
Inevitably, this has spawned a huge amount of speculation, some of it well-informed, some of it not. There are no exit polls and even the verification is little help as the ballot papers are sorted upside down. The reality is that nobody actually knows what is going to happen at 9pm tonight.
Of course we have had some information coming out of verifications. For example a number of people are convinced that UKIP have out-polled Labour in Llanelli and Carmarthenshire.
Town Councillor Alex Williams offers a different story from Ogmore on his blog. He managed to sample 148 ballots at the Ogmore verification and found the following division:
Labour – 38
Conservatives – 23
Liberal Democrats – 27
Plaid Cymru – 28
UKIP – 22
BNP – 10
Reports that the Welsh Liberal Democrats have had back from verifications indicate that we have done well in those areas we campaigned in. The party has in fact put twice as much literature out as previous European Elections, we have done more canvassing and we have got our lead candidates out to meet more people than in 2004.
I have been told that our share of the vote is up on 2004 and that in seats we hope to compete in and win at the General Election we have done very well. We will have to see tonight whether that is correct.
The other rumours that are doing the rounds are that Labour have been toppled from their perch as the highest polling party in Welsh elections, a position they have held since 1918. Labour spin doctors themselves are saying that they may have come 3rd.
Some Conservatives have told me that they believe that they have failed to top the poll as promised and think that this honour falls to Plaid Cymru. That is very possible but it does not guarantee a second seat for them. This depends on whether another party such as UKIP or the Welsh Liberal Democrats can secure 50% of their vote plus one.
In reality I believe that the fourth seat in Wales could still go to any one of five parties. I do not do crystal balls but my best guess is that Plaid will secure the most votes, Labour will come second, the Tories third and that fourth place will fall to either the Welsh Liberal Democrats or UKIP.
A number of commentators have written off the chances of the Welsh Lib Dems but I have not done so yet. Whatever happens however, I believe that we will have made significant progress on last time and will have established ourselves in a good position for the General Election when it comes.
Only eleven and a half hours to go. I don’t think I can take the suspense.
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