Over at the BBC their Welsh Affairs Editor, Vaughan Roderick speculates as to whether Rhodri Morgan plans to stand down as promised on his seventieth birthday (translation here):
Now if Rhodri wanted to keep to his exact words then the leadership election would already be underway in order for him to stand down on the same day as his birthday. As that is not happening we can take it that it’s more likely to be closer to Christmas before the new leader gets to put his feet under the table.
That means the important decisions concerning the government’s 2010-2011 budget will already have been made. There won’t be much of a chance to change direction before the next Assembly election then. Before then of course there’ll be a general election, an election where Labour could receive a hammering.
In the opinion of many in the party, as the new leader has yet to be chosen, it would be better for him to remain as First Minister until after the general election. Afterwards the selection of a new leader could be portrayed as part of the process to renew the party and he or she would be free of accusations of being connected to the “ancien régime”.
Vaughan’s conclusion is that everything points to Rhodri staying on as First Minister for a bit longer. Only the fact that he would be going back on his word if he does not resign might persuade Rhodri to go at the end of this month. Speculation is rife, the leadership contenders are poised to launch their campaigns and yet nobody knows whether there will be a vacancy or not.
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