I have been known to gamble from time to time, with betting sites often appearing in my internet history. Some betting sites also offer markets on politics. I’ve been waiting for the First Minister to appear for some time now, but with there ‘not being a contest’ it has been late in doing so.
But Ladbrokes have now set their odds for the coming race, and they make for some interesting reading.
And which horse comes up as the front runner? The journalists and the bookies seem to agree, it’s Carwyn Jones.
But what is also noteworthy is the odds on Huw Lewis are shorter than those on Edwina Hart. Edwina has long been tipped as the dark horse in this contest, and has been the most quiet during the summer recess regarding her own position. This means the odds on her are a reasonably long 5/1 compared to 3/1 on Huw Lewis, who seems to be frothing at the mouth to declare himself in.
And the one with a slightly odd shaped back leg bringing up the rear? Jane Hutt at 10/1.
Now, as I said, I like a flutter, so I obviously couldn’t resist putting my money somewhere.
Even at evens, Carwyn is a pretty tempting bet. But at 5/1, Edwina could turn out to be a nice little earner. So a massive £10 has just been put behind her.
Don’t quote me as saying that means I think she’ll win, I just think that those odds are a pretty good price for someone who could very much be this contest’s dark horse yet.
……I just hope she declares herself actually in or I just wasted some beer money!
Ladbrokes will also let you bet on others if you request them. I wonder what odds I could get on Ieuan Wyn Jones? Probably enough to retire if it was somehow right!
So, please let Freedom Central know where you’re placing your money. And I’m sure I’ll keep an eye on those odds as the race develops.
And no, if I win any money, I’m not buying you a drink so bugger off.
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Horses? Donkeys? My money’s on the lame duck.
Whats the odds on Kirsty Williams not being the lib dem leader by the time of the assembly election
Mathew,
Maybe you should also check out the odds Ladbrokes are giving on us in our target and held seats. They look very promising. Either favourite or a close second in all that are listed.
Doesn’t really suggest we have too much to fear from Westminister does it?
Anyway, feel free to contact Ladbrokes and ask what odds they’d give you. Or you could just flush some money down a toilet. You’d get the same return either way.
Non-existent, Matthew.
I wouldn’t mind a flutter personally. Shocking Euro results. Westminster could be damaging
Really, Matthew? And how could the general election be damaging? Three of our four held seats have healthy majorities. The fourth has a popular MP, whose majority is sure to increase. There are also a couple of seats where we can make gains. I fail to see how this could be damaging to Kirsty’s leadership.
And our Euro results were quite good. The only part of the UK to see an increase in our vote and swings to the Lib Dems in Cardiff Central, Ceredigion, Brecon and Radnor, Swansea West and Newport East.
“And how could the general election be damaging? Three of our four held seats have healthy majorities. The fourth has a popular MP, whose majority is sure to increase. There are also a couple of seats where we can make gains. I fail to see how this could be damaging to Kirsty’s leadership.”
Well for that exact reason Jeremy. By your view the Lib Dems should keep all these seats comfortably and possibly gain elsewhere. I imaigine yours is a view held by much of the membership. If in that case under Kirsty they lose some seats and fail to make further gains then she will no doubt be under pressure. I don’t know what will happen, maybe the Lib Dems will be succesful and Kirsty will rightfully get praise as leader. If however, as many commentators have suggested, Mark Williams and Lembit lose their seats, with an outside chance that Roger Williams also lost his it would be very damaging indeed.
I can’t see Lembit losing his seat. He’s a hard-working MP, and well respected in his constituency. Despite what some commentators like to think, the fact that Lembit has famours girlfirends does not hamper his ability to do his job. People in Montgomeryshire are not stupid and recognise this.
Mark Williams, again is popular and hard working. I would be extremely surprised if he lost the seat to Plaid – the party that backtracked on tuition fees are unlikely to win favour in a seat with a large student population.
Fair point Jeremy. As I said I don’t know what will happen this is all hypothetical. Maybe the tuition fees issue will effect Plaid. I would imagine Peter Blacks outburst against the badger cull attacking ‘rural communities’ will be played up by plaid and have an equally important role in the election.
I don’t think Lembit will lose but it is still a possibility. If that happened with such a healthy margin as you highlight of course it will reflect badly on Kirsty williams, as will losing Ceredigion even with the tuition fees issue.
“Maybe you should also check out the odds Ladbrokes are giving on us in our target and held seats. They look very promising. Either favourite or a close second in all that are listed.
Doesn’t really suggest we have too much to fear from Westminister does it?”
Fair enough. From what I have seen Plaid are the bookies pick to win Ceredigion, even though you are the current incumbants? You are no doubt ahead with the bookmakers with Lembit and Roger but by no means as far as your majorities in those seats would suggest you should be. Interesting times.
The only Lib Dem held seat in Wales in play is Ceredigion.
Despite what some commentators or rather we should say bloggers appear to believe Lembit is actually likely to improve his majority. THe reason? Some people look at Mont on the map and all they see is a rural constituency which means to them that it should be natural tory territory. If you look closer you will see Newtown and Welshpool. THese are the key to winning the seat and there is not a gnat’s chuff that the inhabitants are going to vote in sizeable enough numbers to elect Farmer Glyn as their MP. With many traditional Labour voters likely to either sit on their hands or switch to any other available leftish parties – and there remains a reasonably sizeable Labour vote in Mont which will be ripe for squeezing – then a more likely scenario than Lembit losing is actually his increasing his vote.
Even if Glyn wins every ward outside Newtown and Welshpool he will still lose. His best chance was agt Mick Bates in the Assembly – Farmer vs Farmer – and he couldn’t even win that!. Lembit knows the language to speak to Labour voters on the estates in Newtown having cut his political campaigning teeth as a councillor up in Newcastle and they don’t get all middle class and snooty about who he’s shagging.
You’re right that Plaid are slightly ahead in Ceredigion, but only very slightly. When many people are expecting us to lose Mont, it’s good to see that we are ahead there.
I couldn’t see any market on Brecon, so I guess they don’t think there is any expectation of us losing there.
But you also have to look at Swansea West, where we are favourites to win and Newport East, where we are a very close second.
And this far out from the election, there is still all to play for.
I’d love a multiple of us holding our seats and taking SW and NE. Would be able to make a few quid on that. But they don’t allow it