Despite what some commentators or rather we should say bloggers appear to believe Lembit is actually likely to improve his majority. THe reason? Some people look at Mont on the map and all they see is a rural constituency which means to them that it should be natural tory territory. If you look closer you will see Newtown and Welshpool. THese are the key to winning the seat and there is not a gnat’s chuff that the inhabitants are going to vote in sizeable enough numbers to elect Farmer Glyn as their MP. With many traditional Labour voters likely to either sit on their hands or switch to any other available leftish parties – and there remains a reasonably sizeable Labour vote in Mont which will be ripe for squeezing – then a more likely scenario than Lembit losing is actually his increasing his vote.

Even if Glyn wins every ward outside Newtown and Welshpool he will still lose. His best chance was agt Mick Bates in the Assembly – Farmer vs Farmer – and he couldn’t even win that!. Lembit knows the language to speak to Labour voters on the estates in Newtown having cut his political campaigning teeth as a councillor up in Newcastle and they don’t get all middle class and snooty about who he’s shagging.

I couldn’t see any market on Brecon, so I guess they don’t think there is any expectation of us losing there.

But you also have to look at Swansea West, where we are favourites to win and Newport East, where we are a very close second.

And this far out from the election, there is still all to play for.

I’d love a multiple of us holding our seats and taking SW and NE. Would be able to make a few quid on that. But they don’t allow it

I don’t think Lembit will lose but it is still a possibility. If that happened with such a healthy margin as you highlight of course it will reflect badly on Kirsty williams, as will losing Ceredigion even with the tuition fees issue.

“Maybe you should also check out the odds Ladbrokes are giving on us in our target and held seats. They look very promising. Either favourite or a close second in all that are listed.

Doesn’t really suggest we have too much to fear from Westminister does it?”

Fair enough. From what I have seen Plaid are the bookies pick to win Ceredigion, even though you are the current incumbants? You are no doubt ahead with the bookmakers with Lembit and Roger but by no means as far as your majorities in those seats would suggest you should be. Interesting times.

Mark Williams, again is popular and hard working. I would be extremely surprised if he lost the seat to Plaid – the party that backtracked on tuition fees are unlikely to win favour in a seat with a large student population.

Well for that exact reason Jeremy. By your view the Lib Dems should keep all these seats comfortably and possibly gain elsewhere. I imaigine yours is a view held by much of the membership. If in that case under Kirsty they lose some seats and fail to make further gains then she will no doubt be under pressure. I don’t know what will happen, maybe the Lib Dems will be succesful and Kirsty will rightfully get praise as leader. If however, as many commentators have suggested, Mark Williams and Lembit lose their seats, with an outside chance that Roger Williams also lost his it would be very damaging indeed.

Maybe you should also check out the odds Ladbrokes are giving on us in our target and held seats. They look very promising. Either favourite or a close second in all that are listed.

Doesn’t really suggest we have too much to fear from Westminister does it?

Anyway, feel free to contact Ladbrokes and ask what odds they’d give you. Or you could just flush some money down a toilet. You’d get the same return either way.