As we await the publication of the report of the All Wales Convention on Wednesday 18th November the one thing that is clear is that the predicted firm recommendation that a referendum should be held in a year’s time on whether we can dismantle the timewasting and costly LCO system and allow the Assembly to assume all the powers granted to it in the Government of Wales Act 2006, is going to highlight tensions within the ruling coalition.
As Media Wales reported at the weekend it is already the case that the attitude of the three candidates for First Minister ranges from luke warm to stone cold, whilst Plaid Cymru Assembly Members (and Welsh Liberal Democrats for that matter) are straining at the bit.
They say that two of the Welsh Labour leadership candidates – Counsel General Carwyn Jones and Health Minister Edwina Hart – are entirely non-committal:
Mr Jones said: “The All Wales Convention hasn’t published its report yet and this has to be the next stage of consideration on this matter.”
A spokesman for Edwina Hart said: “The report will be discussed by the Cabinet after its publication and it would be inappropriate to say more in advance of that.”
They point out that Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney AM, Huw Lewis, was more explicit about his own position:
“A ‘no’ vote now would, I feel, undermine the devolution settlement we already have, let alone any further expansion of powers and responsibilities.
“So let’s look at what the convention has to say and think carefully about how we interpret that.
“I’d also add that right now, and for the next six months, you are going to be unable to attract the attention of any Labour Party politician or Labour voter away from the campaign to beat the Tories in 2010. One poll at a time.
“There is no greater danger to the way Wales is run, nor to our key services than a David Cameron victory in the general election.
“Beat the Tories first, think about the referendum next.”
With Secretary of State for wales, Peter Hain, firmly in the Huw Lewis camp, arguing that a referendum cannot be won before 2011, then it seems that it may not happen at all. That is, unless an incoming Conservative Government were prepared to play ball.
Quite how that will play out amongst the Plaid Cymru grassroorts is difficult to predict. After all Ieuan Wyn Jones passed up the chance to become First Minister because he believed that Labour were more likely to deliver a referendum. How ironic it will be therefore if Labour ignore the opportunity, fracturing the One Wales Agreement in the process, whilst it is the Tories who deliver.
Personally, I do not think that the Tories will agree to a referendum unless they believe that it will sink or hold back the devolution proiject. For me the best chance of getting a plebiscite is if the voters return a Parliament next year with no one party in overall control. At that stage, the Liberal Democrats, with over a century of commitment to devolution, could force the new government to bow to the will of the Welsh Assembly and grant a vote.
Whatever happens, unless a ‘yes’ campaign gets off the ground soon then we will not win a referendum. Perhaps that at least could happen following the publication of the report, with all-party support.
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