I’m ill, and still blogging. That is commitment. Someone email me a lemsip.
As the contest to succeed Rhodri Morgan as Labour leader/First Minister begins, it’s obviously going to be the main subject on the blogs. We now have three declared candidates. Edwina Hart, Huw Lewis and Carwyn Jones. Not much surprise or inspiration there really. Carwyn Jones’ campaign website went live today and a formal declaration is probable tomorrow.
But there isn’t much agreement on who the eventual winner will be. Glyn Davies has first-hand experience in working with both Edwina and Carwyn during his time in the assembly. He is of the impression that it’s between the two of them and that it could be close.
But not everyone has written off Huw Lewis’s chances. Bethan Jenkins points out that he “is keen, floated ideas in various meetings and conferences, and has an eagerness to succeed”. She may be right, and if it does become a battle of ideas then that could easily play into his hands, and Carwyn would be pretty buggered. His answer to every Assembly question is the same “well, under the Tories it would be worse” – that’s not a bloody answer! .
But, it’s not the Plaid group that matters in this one, it’s the Labour group. As Guerrilla Welsh-Fare points out, Huw doesn’t exactly have the backing of the political stars of the Labour group. Can the backing of the likes of Karen Sinclair and Irene James really swing many votes his way? Probably not. But he does have the support of Tory MP David Jones. I’m sure he is grateful. Edwina and Carwyn are both yet to declare exactly who their six are, assuming they have them all signed up by now!
But as Betsan Powys highlights, there are more than just Assembly Members involved in this. There are more Labour MPs than AMs and their votes will count the same in Labour’s strange electoral college type thingy.
And so to the odds this week:
Carwyn Jones: Evens (still)
Huw Lewis: 5/2
Edwina Hart: 7/2
Jane Hutt: 14/1
……has anyone even bothered to ask Jane Hutt if she is planning on running? Someone should email her and check or something. I guess it doesn’t matter either way.
Swansea based blogger Inside Out suggests settling the contest with pistols. The one problem with that is it would create by-elections, and we’re all too busy for that!
The Institute of Welsh Affairs point out that the ban on dual candidates could end up coming back to haunt Labour, given that both Edwina and Carywn are at serious risk of losing their seats to the Tories in 18 months time. We all know that the ban was implemented for party political reasons and to save Labour cabinet members blushes, could they really consider u-turning on this for political reasons as well?
I’m not really a fan of the latest campaign by the BMA to remove sunbeds from all Welsh Leisure Centres. I suppose my issue with this is on two levels. In moderation, there is nothing particularly harmful about them. If someone wants to pay the council to help them get a tan before they go on holiday then there isn’t anything wrong with that, although I think it‘s a fairly odd concept of getting a tan before you go on holiday! But there are many providers of tanning facilities, it’s not like removing them from council properties is going to stop people from using them. There is a second issue, as highlighted by Peter Black on this site, that the revenue raised by these facilities reduces the amount of subsidy they require from the council.
According to Politics Cymru, Vaughan Roderick has blogged on the possible general election results. Given my knowledge of Welsh I will have to take their word for it. The results stem from the Politics Home survey of marginal constituencies. It doesn’t make exactly comfortable reading for the Lib Dems, with a prediction of us losing Ceredigion and not making any gains. But given this week also included the first poll in 27 years that put us ahead of Labour, you have to wonder how credible any poll is that thinks that we won’t take Swansea West and Newport East in these circumstances? But then again, I would say that wouldn’t I?
I don’t agree with Sweet and Tender Hooligan that Plaid and the SNP should participate in the potential debate between party leaders in advance of the general election. There is a simple reason for this. It is a debate between potential Prime Ministers. If a Party is not standing enough candidates to actually even hypothetically win the election, then how can they claim they should be part of a Prime Minister’s debate? Welsh and Scottish debates should take place, but during Welsh and Scottish general elections when their candidates could potentially become the next First Minister, not during an election they are not even trying to win.
Right, I’m going to go sit on my sofa and feel sorry for myself. And get snot everywhere. Yeah, that was what you wanted to picture right now.
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