If reports prove to be true then today could well see one of those significant events in the history of the process known as devolution. The BBC are reporting that on his visit to North Wales, the Conservative Leader, David Cameron will indicate that he would not block a request for a referendum on further law making powers for the assembly if he was prime minister.
There is no indication of course as to which side the Conservatives will take in a referendum campaign but I suspect that speculation that the AMs will line up behind a ‘yes’ campaign and the MPs will be in the ‘no’ camp is pretty close to the mark.
Of course that is not the obvious question that emerges from this clear signal by the Tory leader. It is ‘what will Labour do?’
Peter Hain has already said he would be opposed to a referendum before the 2011 Assembly elections for the entirely pragmatic reason that he does not think it can be won. But if a request should land on his desk with the full support of the vast majority of the 60 Assembly Members (possibly all of us) would he resist that call for an earlier plebiscite?
There are also questions for Rhodri Morgan and Ieuan Wyn Jones as to how they intend to proceed now. So far they have internalised all discussion on the timing of a referendum to the One Wales Government. They know that they can count on the support of the Welsh Liberal Democrats when they decide to go to the people. They think also that they will most probably have the Welsh Assembly Tory group on their side.
But they cannot indefinitely keep us out of the loop, nor can they count on us backing their judgement on timing and other issues if we have not been consulted on these decisions and given a voice in a meaningful cross-party ‘yes’ campaign. The longer they treat this as a two-party affair then the greater the risk that they will fracture support for a ‘yes’ vote with the effect that other parties will go off and do their own thing and open up opportunities for the ‘No’ campaigners to drive a wedge between us.
That is not to say that pro-devolutionists in the opposition parties will switch sides, far from it. However, more in frustration than anything else we will take our own initiatives, challenge the judgement of Minister’s on timing and question them at every turn on their own commitment to this process, when they would rather be concentrating on other things. That is the nature of politics and it is what happens when you do not make an effort to take your allies with you on cross-party issues purely for party political reasons.
There is now less than two weeks to the publication of the report of the All-Wales Convention. We all think that we know what it will say and the only question once it is in the public domain will not be should we have a referendum, but when? We cannot afford to have parties go off on their own on this issue but if we are not all brought into the tent now then that is what will happen.
Irrespective of what David Cameron says or what Peter Hain thinks the most important thing that Rhodri Morgan and Ieuan Wyn Jones can do now is to recognise that that decision is no longer the sole preserve of their respective parties. They need to call Kirsty Williams and Nick Bourne and any other relevant parties in, well in advance of the publication of the Convention report to both brief them and to seek agreement on how we take forward its conclusions.
If they do not do so then the impact of the report will be lost and valuable campaigning time dissipated as the parties advance their own views on how we should proceed and seek to pin the Government down on its own views. This is an historic moment, Labour and Plaid would do well not to throw it away by taking a partisan approach to it.
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