I have blogged elsewhere about what I think the shape of Carwyn Jones’ new cabinet will be. However I have not attempted as yet to consider what impact he might have as First Minister.
On accepting the result Carwyn Jones announced that Welsh Labour party members knew there was “a difficult task ahead” but the “fight back” had started. What is not clear is what impact he can have in the subseqent General Election campaign to make that ‘fight back’ an effective one.
The General Election campaign will inevitably focus on the UK Government and the person of the Prime Minister. Capable as Carwyn is he does not have the profile or the popularity of Rhodri Morgan, attributes that were still not enough to prevent Labour’s worse performances in Wales in the 2007 Assembly elections and this year’s European elections.
Furthermore, although Labour may have changed its head it needs to change itself if it is to make a difference. As a party it remains very much UK-focussed, with weak Welsh policy processes and Welsh governance. Whereas all the other UK parties have empowered their Welsh arm (in the case of the Welsh Liberal Democrats 50 years ago), Labour are lagging behind.’
It is no coincidence that the most fruitful periods for the Assembly have been during coalition governments when firstly the Welsh Liberal Democrats and now Plaid Cymru have provided the ideas for policy innovation and change that Labour have subsequently embraced. If Carwyn does not address that failing then Labour will continue to lag behind on a Welsh level and lose the dominance that they have previously enjoyed.
Related posts:
