2009 is gone, and lets face it, it was shit and has left us all feeling disappointed. What a waste of 365 days. We could have achieved so much if it didn’t involve effort and that type of thing. But now it’s 2010 (typing that is weird) which means we can also focus on how we’ve all wasted the last ten years.
And a new year means new stuff will happen, and in this article, I’m going to tell you what is going to happen, with a degree of accuracy akin to a blindfolded man throwing rocks at a Squirrel. Think of it as a cross between predictions, and the ranting of an idiot who got bored and decided to write a blog piece. Because that’s sort of what it is, and by sort of, I mean actually.
1. The Tories will win the general election
Which is probably a given right now. But there is still the best part of half a year left for the Tories to cock it up. They’ve spent the last few years trying to say as little as possible about as much as possible. During the campaign, they’re going to have to give a bit more detail on what they actually plan to do. They seem to be trying to be realistic, which I give them credit for, but making a manifesto both attractive and affordable, while making sure you can still afford tax cuts for millionaires is an impossible balance.
Labour on the other hand have decided to give up on realism. Brown’s speech at the conference last Autumn was proof of that. It wouldn’t surprise me to see promises to increase public spending, cut tax and reduce government and produce a new series of Faulty Towers all at once. They’re not going to win, so why bother trying eh?
The problem is, there are members of the public who will listen to this, and the class warfare that is bound to occur (look, yes I know I already mentioned tax cuts for millionaires as well, but tough, I’m a hypocrite) and decide that Labour is still a viable option and they will do better than expected. Which is where prediction two comes in.
2. The Tories will win the general election – but not by much
There is a clue occurring here. In the last couple of days both Labour and the Tories have been keen to court the Lib Dems. Their idea of an olive branch seems to be ‘we’re willing to sell out on this principle, which principles are you willing to sell out on to get it’ and so their offers have hardly been met with enthusiasm by our leadership.
But there has to be a reason for this. They didn’t just decide to start talking about us in positive terms after years of pretending we didn’t exist for no reason. They will be carrying out their own polling, and that polling must be suggesting that we are going to be a factor in the next election and that things will not be that clean cut.
Should there be a hung parliament, things will be far more interesting than in 2009!
3. The minor parties will make little progress
This includes Plaid. Well, ok, Plaid will make some progress, but be generally unhappy with the result, as they will set themselves a high benchmark as they did in the European elections and once again fail to make the cut.
They will be particularly narked at their failure to retake Ceredigion. I will point and laugh.
But elsewhere in the UK, the Greens, UKIP and others will once again fail to get their feet off the ground. Which is a shame really, because both have proved that they have a degree of support in places and our electoral system should allow this support to be represented.
I am aware you could include the BNP in this as well. They will fail to get a seat too.
The SNP, will be the exception that proves this rule and do quite well. But who really gives a toss about Scotland?
4. Carwyn Jones will make Welsh politics quite dull (well, moreso)
It’s too early to speculate on whether Carwyn is going to be an effective leader (it’s not, I just don’t want to go into that now!) but one thing is clear, he isn’t going to make things that exciting.
Time and time again he has stood up in the Assembly, refused to answer any actual questions and instead just started slagging off the Tories. Apparently, despite the fact that we will soon be in year thirteen of Labour’s reign, it’s the 1979-1997 Tory governments fault that there is still child poverty in 2010.
And expect this annoying pattern to only get worse.
5. Once the Tories win, everything in Wales will be their fault
We all know that the most likely thing a Labour backbencher is going to say is ‘aren’t the Tories terrible’. Well, once the Tories get in at Westminster, they are going to go into overdrive.
The next Welsh budget is going to be a tough one. There is nothing that the Tory party in Westminster can do to change that, it won’t be their fault. But when the Labour Finance Minister in the Assembly stands up to introduce the budget, it won’t be their fault for mismanaging public funds in both Cardiff and London for years, it will be the fault of the Tory Government that has been in for six months. And they will not accept one ounce of the blame for the cuts that will follow.
But that will cause something else to happen to.
6. The One Wales Government will collapse
Plaid are not going to be keen to head into the Assembly elections tied to a sinking ship. Enough rats have left the sinking ship this year by announcing their retirement. They know what is coming, and so do Plaid.
At some point in the next year, Plaid will make a ‘principled stand’ and break away from Labour.
It may be over a referendum, it may be over the budget (which would be my guess) or it may be about the catering arrangements for Ieaun Wyn’s disco. Who knows.
But at some point, they will make a cynical political move, and call it sticking to their principles.
Six is a fairly abitary stopping point. But why should I do ten? I don’t want to do ten, you don’t want to read ten. Everyone wins.
Have a disappointing new year.
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