Comments on: 2010 – Stuff that will happen

By: Matt O'Grady

Matt O'Grady — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 18:39:17 +0000

Sorry Huw, I should have been clear when I said they ‘wouldn’t allow’ it to happen, I meant that the parties would work together to ensure some form of government is installed. No party would want to be seen as causing an election, because the public would get a little pissed off with that.

But that would only be the case if it was a few months from the election. If it was a year or so from the election then my guess would be that we would have to take some form of decision over who to support. We would be the ‘king maker’ on at least that occassion.

I would suggest our demands include a reduction in beer prices at all bars within one mile of the Assembly and the nomination of Janice Gregory as First Minister.

Thankfully I am in no position to make such demands…

By: Huw Clayton

Huw Clayton — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 18:23:06 +0000

I give you section 5 of the GOWA 2006:

“[1]The Secretary of State must propose a day for the holding of a poll at an extraordinary general election if subsection (2) or (3) applies…[3]This subsection applies if any period during which the Assembly is required under section 47 to nominate an Assembly member for appointment as the First Minister ends without such a nomination being made.”

So if the OWG does collapse, a new government does have to be found if elections are to be avoided – it’s not a question of “not allowing” elections to be held. Given that there is no viable alternative at present, there would almost certainly have to be elections.

As a result, I’m struggling to see why Plaid Cymru throwing away a position of current strength for a position of probable weakness (assuming the Tories would gain substantially in a 2010 Assembly election) unless Labour implodes altogether after the general election. This is why I really can’t see them pulling out before 2011, even though I can see the force of your arguments for why they should.

By: senn

senn — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 18:13:30 +0000

Matt i would not give either the Llafur or the blue privilege brigade any confidence…they both need to be booted into touch. A liberal Democrat government would be a genuine new start for the UK, it would be exciting…

By: Matt O'Grady

Matt O'Grady — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 13:09:03 +0000

It’s hard to say what would happen next really. It depends on when it occurs. If there isn’t long left, Labour may try and limp on as a minority. Or we may be asked by Plaid and the Tories or Labour to support coalitions.

Should neither occur, I don’t know what the GOWA says occurs should a government not be formed. I don’t think anyone would allow new elections to take place though.

But again, timing will dictate what happens more than anything else in this regard.

I don’t think that will be the most important thing on Plaid Cymru’s mind though. They will be focusing on how to use this for the greatest political effect. What it means for the stability of Wales is unlikely to be a consideration.

By: Huw Clayton

Huw Clayton — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 11:35:51 +0000

So if you’re right about 6 – what happens next? Does the rainbow coalition come back into the realm of the possible? Do Labour form a minority government? Or do there have to be fresh elections?

My guess would be that the OWG will continue until 2011, albeit probably with plenty of infighting, simply because there is no realistic alternative right now.

By: Dave Herbert

Dave Herbert — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 10:01:07 +0000

You’ve really cheered me up. I can’t wait for all of this to happen, not least the Carwyn making things boring bit – he’s really going to breathe new life into the efforts of backbenchers to get in some kip in during plenary.
Expect also a new economic plan which talks about investing in skills (paying unemployed people to be long term unemployed whilst cutting education budgets) and making Wales sustainable (read: not building the M4 relief).