Fascinating blog entry yesterday from Heledd Fychan, the Plaid candidate for Montgomeryshire at the next General Election in which she makes it clear that her experience of talking to people in the constituency indicates that Glyn Davies’ hype about winning is largely self-delusion and that he has a very steep hill to climb indeed if he is to oust Lembit Őpik.
She joins Tory blogger and political pundit, Iain Dale in predicting that the Liberal Democrats will hold this seat.
Yes, the Tories did top the poll here in Montgomeryshire at last year’s European election. BUT, and this is one thing political reporters continue to ignore – they also topped the European poll in the county in the previous European election only to be thrashed by Lembit Opik in the following General Election. One win doesn’t necesserily mean another.
Journalists have certainly bought into the Glyn Davies hype, which has largely stemmed from the popularity of his blog and the confidence he has in his campaign. He’s also campaigning hard, and has been for ages, and is lucky that the media give him as many opportunities as when he was an elected official. If not more! His campaign is certainly quite effective, and he is doing everything possible to win. But will this be enough in the end? Personally, I wouldn’t place a bet on it.
Whatever I think of Lembit Opik, he does have one things that every politician would like to have within the county (but not for the same reasons I hasten to add!) – name recongnition. Everyone, from young to old, know who their MP is, and how many other politicians can boast of that? Yes, Glyn is well known in all the right circles. But do those people who aren’t interested in politics know who he is? And what about the young? Does he appeal to the majority? What can he offer them? And how is he different from any typical middle-aged politician? That’s definitely not clear. To overturn Lembit’s majority, Glyn will have to appeal to these people and I’m not sure, personally, if he will be able to do so. He is a man of his generation, with traditional views and a traditional approach to politics. Yes, like Lembit, he is a bit of a maverick and he doesn’t just tow the party line. But he is in general quite safe, and his ideas not that radical and different. And though he may think its manly not to use deodrant, as he confessed on his blog, sweat doesn’t really appeal to the electorate!
It’s an interesting battle for me to be involved in. Obviously, there isn’t the same amount of pressure on me as Plaid traditionally come fourth in the seat. Yes, I’m determined to increase the vote, I’m running to win and I’d love to do so. But by being in this position, I can be quite objective in looking at the race between Glyn and Lembit. Those who are predicting publicly that Glyn will definitely win should spend time in the seat and actually speak to the electorate, rather than just observe via the blogosphere. I think you’d find a different reaction to both Glyn and Lembit there – one which would probably surprise you.
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Shame you didn’t also quote the last paragraph where I said that it will boil down to the campaign. Lembit is in trouble and has lost a great deal of support. He has damaged himself considerably and he’ll have to fight for what should be a safe seat. Not something to gloat about. But I don’t think all those disallusioned supporters will turn to Glyn which is why the race is still open. Everything to play for and an interesting race ahead.
Except that is not what you wrote in the last paragraph Heledd. The actual paragraph was not quoted because Plaid Cymru like the text is irrelevant to the main race in Montgomeryshire. You yourself said you are starting from fourth place. Essentially, that paragraph amounted to bravado in contrast to the more considered and very brave analysis that preceded it.
“Election night should certainly be interesting and I honestly think the result will boil down to the campaigns once the election is called.”
That’s not bravado – above is exactly what I said and think. Make no mistake, Lembit is not well liked and many of his constituents are embarassed by his antics and disappointed. They won’t be voting for him and my views on the fact that he is a joke of an MP are well recorded. Even your own party leader doesn’t rate him and has publiclly criticized him!
A considered and honest response on Montgomeryshire would be appreciated by you as well as your honest opinion about Lembit and the damage he’s doing to the party. You must admit it’s bad for the party that you’ll have to fight so hard in a constituency that you should be winning easily? And what are you going to do as a party about all the members that are abandoning you because of his public persona?
Yes, Lembit has name recognition. It will be difficult to compete with that. But he has name recongition for all the wrong reasons and he’s not a good MP for Montgomeryshire. People have had enough of him.
No doubt I’m in a difficult position. You have to be realistic when running for an election but that doesn’t mean I won’t give both of them a good fight. And never say never. Anything could happen between now and the election and why bother being a candidate if you don’t work your hardest and remain optimistic?
I do find it sad and pathetic that you as an elected representative have taken it upon yourself to be as petty and bitchy towards me at every possible opportunity. I don’t think there’s any point in rising to it, but maybe you should think carefully before always jumping to Lembit’s defence. Something has gone wrong in Montgomeryshire for you as a party, and you need to address that rather than attack those who dare to point out the truth about the situation. Throwing a few punches at me might make you feel better, but it doesn’t tackle the internal problem. Something for you to ponder over anyway.
Heledd, my honest answer is that I have no problem with Lembit whatsoever and neither does Kirsty. She may be critical of some things he has done but that does not mean that she does not think that he is an outstanding MP and an asset to the Liberal Democrats. It is also why she has been out campaigning in Montgomeryshire with him.
As it happens we fight every seat hard and never take anything for granted. That applies to Montgomeryshire as much as it does to Ceredigion, Swansea West, Cardiff Central and Newport East. It is part of the service we offer to voters that we as politicians are accessible, hard-working and approachable.
We have no worries about Montgomeryshire, I am confident that we will hold it comfortably, much as you predict. Obviously with a national swing back to the Tories we will have to work a bit harder to achieve that but that is not a problem.
As for bitchiness, you have taken it upon yourself to fight a nasty, personal campaign against Lembit in which you have questioned his morality and his integrity. I have never stooped that low with you and do not condone that sort of campaigning. I have though responded robustly to you when I have felt you have overstepped the mark. There is a rule in politics that you may wish to familiarise yourself with, if you cannot take it then you should not dish it out.