Betsan Powys reports on her blog that in an attempt to have some degree of certainty in achieving the 40 votes necessary to secure a referendum on moving to Part Four of the Government of Wales Act, there will be an attempt to suspend standing orders so as to enable the Presiding Officer and Deputy Presiding Officer to vote. At present they cannot do so.
In many ways this is academic because if we are serious about winning this referendum there needs to be all party agreement on the motion. Any discussions about the suspension of standng orders (for which a two thirds majority is needed) cannot be taken in isolation from the trigger vote. They are tied together.
However, the way that Labour and Plaid Cymru are behaving you would not think that was not the case. On one of the political shows on Thursday the Deputy First Minister gave the clear impression that the wording of the motion for 9th February vote had been agreed between his party and Labour and that everything was hunky dory. Well that may be the case but no agreement has yet been made with either the Welsh Liberal Democrats or the Tories, and both of us are seeking assurances that the referendum will not be held on the same say as the Assembly elections.
What Labour and Plaid should not do is take our vote for granted. I believe both parties will vote against the enfranchisement of the PO and DPO through suspending standing orders if no deal has been made. That is likely to lead to the procedural motion failing. The government has been appraised of this but are pressing ahead anyway. That is a worrying sign.
Secondly, on the referendum vote itself the Welsh Liberal Democrats may be in favour of holding the plebiscite as soon as possible but we will resist a May 2011 date and abstain if we do not get assurances on this. Labour and Plaid Cymru should not be under any illusions that this will not happen. A referendum is unwinnable without all-party support, if Labour and Plaid make it a partisan issue then we would be justified in saying so, not supporting it and blaming them for playing political games with the future of Welsh devolution.
I hope that it will not come to this. There is time available to get the near-unanimity that exists in the Assembly for an October poll recorded in a vote on 9th February. However, the First Minister and his Deputy do not seem in any hurry to broker this deal. Let us hope that they do not miss this opportunity through complacency.
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This really highlights the huge faults in the one wales government. Based on a agreement which does not seem possible to obtain without the support of the other parites support, this isn’t like to happen and the only real prospect of a referendum in my view is dependant on the composition of the assembly after the 2011 election