Comments on: The wrong argument http://www.freedomcentral.org.uk/2010/02/the-wrong-argument.html Sun, 05 Feb 2012 11:48:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: MH http://www.freedomcentral.org.uk/2010/02/the-wrong-argument.html/comment-page-1#comment-3204 MH Wed, 03 Feb 2010 13:41:27 +0000 http://www.freedomcentral.org.uk/?p=2850#comment-3204 I have a good deal of sympathy with your position, Peter. As I've said on Syniadau <a href="http://syniadau--buildinganindependentwales.blogspot.com/2010/01/pulling-trigger-for-referendum.html" rel="nofollow">here</a> and <a href="http://syniadau--buildinganindependentwales.blogspot.com/2010/02/b-of-bang.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>, I find it bizarre and inexplicable that the motion makes no reference to the date, the wording of the question or any of the other details. It is in effect saying to Peter Hain, "We'd like a referendum, but we'll leave it entirely up to you to decide when it is and what the question will be." I said in my post yesterday, I think there are definite reasons for leaving the possibility of a referendum on the same day as the Assembly election on the table. It would certainly benefit the Labour Party if both were to be held together, and it would also increase a turnout that might otherwise be very low. In short, you have every reason to be suspicious of the decision not to specify a date. But the motion has now been published, and therefore won't be changed now (though you might try tabling an amendment). Failing that, I can see no good reason why Carwyn Jones and Ieuan Wyn Jones, perhaps in a joint statement with Peter Hain, should not issue a "statement of intention" or even a "preliminary draft" of the draft Referendum Order <b>before</b> next Tuesday. But you have to accept that they probably won't do that. And that puts you in an impossible position. My advice is that it is simply not tenable for you to let the motion fail. You still have the safety net of the vote on the final draft of the Referendum Order ... so wouldn't it be better to save your "veto" until then? At that point we will all know <b>all</b> the details, including the date and the question. - My own view is that I don't mind so much when the referendum is, so long as we actually have it. I have never had any doubt that the referendum will be won, but the big battle was to actually get it. However the date is obviously one of the prime sticking points for both the LibDems and the Tories (for very obvious practical reasons) so for the purposes of fighting a unified campaign I'm more than happy to go for October 2010. March 2011 would be fine too, and Vaughan Roderick beat me to the suggestion that the Assembly elections could be put off until June 2011, so as to allow a sufficient interval between the two votes. <i>As an aside, that is what happened last year, when local elections were delayed to co-incide with the Euro election. But that was done to hold the two elections on the same day in order to increase turnout in both ... exactly the opposite of what you want.</i> - Finally, even though I don't share your concerns about the referendum being lost, I <b>do</b> think it is important that we fight the campaign in the right way. I think it is tragic that the Welsh Government has let the opportunity of getting unanimous, enthusiastic support for the referendum motion slip through its fingers by refusing to address the proper concerns of both LibDems and Tories. They are playing party political games over something that all parties in the Assembly could have agreed on. I fear that all this might be a signal of the way Labour intent to fight the campaign. That they will make it into a party political issue against the Tories because they think that is the easiest way to win over the 40% or so of their supporters who, in the polls, say they will vote No. I have a good deal of sympathy with your position, Peter. As I’ve said on Syniadau here and here, I find it bizarre and inexplicable that the motion makes no reference to the date, the wording of the question or any of the other details. It is in effect saying to Peter Hain, “We’d like a referendum, but we’ll leave it entirely up to you to decide when it is and what the question will be.”

I said in my post yesterday, I think there are definite reasons for leaving the possibility of a referendum on the same day as the Assembly election on the table. It would certainly benefit the Labour Party if both were to be held together, and it would also increase a turnout that might otherwise be very low. In short, you have every reason to be suspicious of the decision not to specify a date. But the motion has now been published, and therefore won’t be changed now (though you might try tabling an amendment). Failing that, I can see no good reason why Carwyn Jones and Ieuan Wyn Jones, perhaps in a joint statement with Peter Hain, should not issue a “statement of intention” or even a “preliminary draft” of the draft Referendum Order before next Tuesday.

But you have to accept that they probably won’t do that. And that puts you in an impossible position. My advice is that it is simply not tenable for you to let the motion fail. You still have the safety net of the vote on the final draft of the Referendum Order … so wouldn’t it be better to save your “veto” until then? At that point we will all know all the details, including the date and the question.

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My own view is that I don’t mind so much when the referendum is, so long as we actually have it. I have never had any doubt that the referendum will be won, but the big battle was to actually get it. However the date is obviously one of the prime sticking points for both the LibDems and the Tories (for very obvious practical reasons) so for the purposes of fighting a unified campaign I’m more than happy to go for October 2010. March 2011 would be fine too, and Vaughan Roderick beat me to the suggestion that the Assembly elections could be put off until June 2011, so as to allow a sufficient interval between the two votes.

As an aside, that is what happened last year, when local elections were delayed to co-incide with the Euro election. But that was done to hold the two elections on the same day in order to increase turnout in both … exactly the opposite of what you want.

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Finally, even though I don’t share your concerns about the referendum being lost, I do think it is important that we fight the campaign in the right way. I think it is tragic that the Welsh Government has let the opportunity of getting unanimous, enthusiastic support for the referendum motion slip through its fingers by refusing to address the proper concerns of both LibDems and Tories. They are playing party political games over something that all parties in the Assembly could have agreed on.

I fear that all this might be a signal of the way Labour intent to fight the campaign. That they will make it into a party political issue against the Tories because they think that is the easiest way to win over the 40% or so of their supporters who, in the polls, say they will vote No.

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