The BBC today published their usual St. David’s Day poll setting out how people would vote in a referendum to give the Welsh Assembly full law-making powers within the defined areas of competence set out in the Government of Wales Act. Actually, they did not phrase the question like that but you get the gist.
The results of this poll were quite encouragiung, confirming a trend towards more people being prepared to vote ‘yes’ in a referendum. A total of 56% of those questioned said they would vote for full Senedd law-making powers, with 35% against. I believe the ‘don’t knows’ came to about 10%.
As the BBC website points out the gap between those who say they would vote yes and no in equivalent BBC/ICM polls over the past three years has grown from seven points in 2008, to 13 points last year, and this year reaches 21 points – a significant margin in favour of a yes vote.
Commenting on the poll, Welsh Liberal Democrat Leader, Kirsty Williams said: “As the only Party truly commited to a federal Britain with a full Parliament for Wales, we welcome the growing support for stronger and clearer Welsh law making powers.
However the various questions and answers in this poll make it more obvious than ever that the actual question asked in any referendum is of the utmost importance.
In the best interests of democracy and accountable government the challenge is there for the progressive forces in Wales to both inform, and make the case, for what can be achieved with greater law making powers.”
And Kirsty is right, this is a challenge rather than an indication as to how things will go in a vote. We must not forget that there were similar polls in the run-up to the 1997 referendum.
My view is that this poll is useful. It shows that a referendum can be won and that if we get the right cross-party campaign then we will win it. However, it also says that a referendum is there to be lost if we do not get our act together.
The big issue for all of us is how we motivate the 56% of the population who want more powers to go out and cast their vote and what happens with the don’t knows. There is still a long way to go.
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