I wrote on my own blog that it is far too early to be drawing conclusions about the General Election. This is mostly because I am still too tired to think properly. However I will have a go with some initiial thoughts.
The first thing I would say is that no party really won in this election. Even the Conservatives, who gained a substantial number of extra seats and now stand on the verge of forming a government of sorts. Only a few months ago Cameron was flying high in the polls and was looking at a comfortable majority. How did that work out for him exactly? The fact is that the Tories failed to seal the deal.
That Labour failed must surely be beyond dispute. They are clinging to power in a desperate hope that the Liberal Democrats and other minor parties will join them in an anti-Tory coalition government. However, tempting as that is the numbers do not add up. Such a construct would not be stable and could not get its legislation through the House of Commons. That includes a PR Referendum Bill, which would surely fail to attract the support of all the Labour MPs, leaving Gordon Brown without anything to offer us.
Plaid Cymru also flopped but then that was hardly a surprise. They may claim that they were the victims of a huge establishment conspiracy, which by excludiing them from the Prine Ministerial debates put them at a disadvantage, but the truth is that they have nothing to offer at a UK level and even what they did have to say was over-shadowed by their constant whinging on this precise issue.
They saw the Liberal Democrats turn a majoritry of a few hundred in their top target to one of over 8,000, they came fourth in the two key marginals of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South and Aberconwy, failed to come close in Llanelli and saw Labour double their majority in Anglesey. Now Plaid are trying to get a piece of the action by suggesting that they are available for talks with Gordon Brown. The problem is that the so-called Celtic block of 35 seats they were projecting before the election barely reached double figures afterwards.
It was not a good result for the Liberal Democrats either. In Wales despite substantial advances in Swansea West, Newport East, Merthyr Tydfil, Pontypridd and Wrexham we failed to win any of our targets, though all of those seats must be good prospects in the Assembly elections. We held Cardiff Central, Brecon and Radnorshire and Ceredigion comfortably but lost Mongomeryshire. Lembit Öpik of course was the architect of his own misfortune but the personal and vicious campaign waged against him by some of his opponents added to his woes and helped to seal his fate.
It is my view that Cleggmania was largely a media-construct that they then proceeded to dismantle. Many of the new supporters it attracted were those who do not tend to vote. It appears also that it enhanced our vote in seats we could not win rather than those where we needed the boost the most.
The phenomenon also derailed the Liberal Democrat campaign. The party stopped talking about its key messages so much and was diverted onto the subject of hung Parliaments, it allowed its targeting strategy to slip and responded by spreading its limited resources too thinly. As a result our performance against the Tory advance and a failing Labour Party was patchy and inconsistent.
We held onto seats like Somerton and Frome and gained Wells for example, we increased our majority massively in Cheltenham and Westmoreland and Lonsdale but lost Winchester and failed to take key targets like Islington South. We lost our monopoly of Cornwall and even conceded seats like Chesterfield to Labour.
If there is a bright side to Cleggmania it is that it bolstered the Liberal Democrat vote against the inevitable two party squeeze at the end of the campaign as people started to think about who they would like in Number 10. It was a luxury we did not have in 1992 for example and added some resilience to our vote. Without it we could have had substantally less than 57 seats.
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Lib Dems should pursue a pact with Labour.
Under a Con-lib dem admin they will get bullied and be peripheral.
With Labour there role will be much stronger and Lib Dem policies on Europe, defence, electoral reform, taxation and public expernditure will have much more chance of being realised. Scrapping of ID cards could be something the lib dems could stipulate and the scrapping of smaller things like HIP’s.
John Major said yesterday ‘ We could bear a few liberals in cabinet posts if that as enough to get a Conservative government’
Clegg should tell the Tories to get stuffed
I live in Preseli Pembrokeshire, and while I voted for you (on the basis of policy) I can see why many more here did not. While this may not be one of your target constituencies, the campaign here was woefully underfought. I received one leaflet, and saw no mention of the Lib Dem candidate in the local press, nor was I canvassed. To add to this, the candidate was not from Pembrokeshire, which matters far more than you imagine to the people of this county.
I don’t know if you are aware of the potentially massive support the Liberal Democrats have in Pembrokeshire, particularly amongst younger people, and I truly beleive that this seat was completly ‘winnable’. However, time and time again, I heard that how short-changed people were feeling about the perceived lack of interest in winning our votes.
Please, don’t let this happen again, it’s such a shame.