A) Lab-LD with 315 seats + SDLP + Alliance = 319 needs solid support from either DUP or two nationalist parties to just clear the hurdle of a majority. Within weeks a package of cuts and tax rises would need to be agreed and it would be impossible to exempt Scotland, Wales or N Ireland – the core demand of those minor parties. So, unless the package obtained Cons agreement, the government would fall long before achieving PR. Moreover, the obvious instability would cause markets to fall immediately.

B) If we allow the Cons to become a minority government, without any agreement, they will blame us for market falls and say that makes the cuts more urgent and deeper. They will do a few counterbalancing popular things, look strong in adversity and go to the country in October. We cannot afford another election – they can – and we would have blown the argument for PR. We say it can produce stable government but try that in October when a hung Parliament has produced instability!

C) We have to negotiate hard with the Cons to secure policy agreement and then accept what our team recommends. We cannot repeat the Welsh experiment of failing to back the outcome of negotiations. The damage to the Party would be far greater – and undermine the PR argument for decades. Agreement and participation in government would help to win that argument.