A new poll by ITV Wales makes it more likely that Labour will lose seats on Thursday. Gordon Brown’s party are at 35%, up 2 on last month but down 7.7% on the share of the vote they gained in 2005.
The Welsh Liberal Democrats have settled down to 23% of the vote, six down on the previous ITV Wales poll but this is still 4.6% up on what they achieved at the last election, putting them in a good position to gain seats as well as to hold onto what they already have.
The Tories are up 4 to 27%, 5.6% up on 2005, whilst Plaid Cymru remain in fourth place on 10%, down 2.6% on their result last time.
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The assessment from UK Polling Report is that the Lib Dems stay on 4 seats
“This works out as a swing of 6.7% from Labour to the Conservatives in Wales, larger than in most GB polls. If repeated at the general election on Thursday then on a uniform swing across Wales the Conservatives would gain four seats (Cardiff North, Vale of Glamorgan, Aberconwy and Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire) and Plaid Cymru would gain two (Ynys Mon and Arfon). Labour would be down 6 and the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 4.”