A new poll in the Western Mail puts the Welsh Liberal Democrats on course for its best ever performance in Wales next Thursday.
Pollsters have placed Labour on 37.5%, down on the 42.7% of the vote they secured in 2005. The Conservatives are in second place, 14% behind Labour on 23.5%, up on the 21.4% they polled at the last General Election.
The poll by Wales-based Research and Marketing Plus found the Liberal Democrats were in third place on 21.0%, 2.6% up on their 2005 share of the vote, while Plaid Cymru’s support was at 10.8%, down by 1.8% on 2005.
Although this is just one poll it confirms trends across the UK and in other Welsh polls that show the Liberal Democrats doing better than their 2005 vote share, with Plaid Cymru trailing in fourth place.
If this is sustained and reflected in actual voting it should see the Liberal Democrats retain their four Welsh seats and possibly add to them.
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So keeping your four seats is “an outstanding result”?
An increase of just 2.6% is hardly earth-shattering considering the inroads reported to have been made by Liberal Democrats elsewhere in the UK. Unless I am looking at the wrong figures, I don’t believe that it will provides a sufficient swing to enable increase the net number of Lib Dem seats either. A perplexing situation to say the least.