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The cost of a no vote

The statement by the First Minister yesterday linking the referendum on law-making powers with the reform of the Barnett formula was a mistake. In a typical example of Labour arrogance, he effectively introduced an inaccurate and partisan claim into a cross party campaign, seeking to hijack the message without discussing it with his allies.

The issue of Barnett review is separate to the debate on strengthening law making powers for Wales. Irrespective of the badly worded passage in the coalition agreement, the UK Government is committed to both the referendum and the funding-review. They are not linked and nor should they be. One is about the ability to legislate, the other about the administration and funding of key public services.

The claim that that for every day the coalition fails to act on the Barnett formula it costs Wales £800,000 is also misleading and disingenuous. Gerry Holtham himself has suggested that it could take 10 to 14 years before Wales receives the full benefit of such a reform. It cannot be achieved overnight and it does not help that Wales’ most senior politician goes public in this way to suggest otherwise. Where is his evidence? Clearly, Carwyn does not want the facts to get in the way of a good story.

And of course if this is is so important then why is it that Labour did nothing to reform the Barnett Formula for the 13 years when they were in power both at Westminster and in Wales. On the First Minister’s calculations that inaction has cost Wales £3.9 billion since 1997. The ‘Barnett formula’ as a system of funding is widely discredited and delivers a poor deal for Wales. But it is Labour’s formula – invented by Labour and sustained by successive Labour governments. It was though still being defended by the Labour Chief Secretary to the Treasury in February of this year, by the Chancellor of the Exchequer during the general election and by a Labour leadership candidate last month.

Where Carwyn Jones is right is in the cost of the present system. He has identified that the Legislative Competence Order process by which we ask for permission to pass laws is wasting nearly £2 million a year through duplication.

There are clear and very good reasons why we need a ‘yes’ vote in next year’s referendum and there are savings to be made. However, whilst the One Wales parties continue to misrepresent the process and the outcome of Barnett reform and utilise those arguments in this way then they are in danger of dividing the ‘yes’ campaign before it even gets off the ground.

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