Freedom Central » All-Wales Convention

One Wales starts to unravel in heat of Labour leadership contest

Peter Black — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:32:52 +0000

With Peter Hain already fighting a rearguard action to forestall a referendum it seems that the Welsh Labour leadership election has caused a full scale retreat from the commitments in the One Wales agreement by at least two of the potential successors to Rhodri Morgan and some significant prefarication by the third.

In a debate between the three candidates on ITV last night Huw Lewis made it clear that he would not push for an early referendum on new powers if he wins the contest. The formula he has devised to frustrate his potential cabinet colleagues is one poll at a time:

‘It would be reckless and wrong for a Labour leader to take their eye off the ball, and the ball in play is ‘Let’s stop the Tories gaining power at the next general election,” he said.

But Plaid Cymru director of elections, Helen Mary Jones was not amused. She said Labour had committed to supporting a referendum before 2011 when the two parties agreed to share power in the One Wales pact, that there had already been enough consultation and that the Government now needed to get on with it:

‘This isn’t a matter for internal party politics. People like Huw Lewis need to remember that the deal was supported by the overwhelming majority of his party rank and file as it was by mine… The timing of the referendum should depend on the Convention’s advice and when the referendum is most likely to be won and not on an election to another place.’

Carwyn Jones also backtracked on the agreement he had signed up to as a Government Minister, keen not to lose the vote of the 15 MPs he has already signed up to support him. He told the programme´s viewers that it is essential there is ‘broad agreement within the Labour Party’ before the pre-referendum campaign begins:

‘It’s important that we actually talk to our colleagues in Westminster and talk to our party members and to the trade unions so they feel part of the process.

‘It would be a very bad move if it was simply Labour AMs who were seen as moving the process towards a referendum without consulting without anyone else in the party.’

Even Edwina Hart was cautious, saying that the decision to go ahead with a campaign would have to be discussed within the coalition cabinet and individual parties. She did though stress her own record as a supporter of new powers, saying: ‘I have been before the Assembly was even established back in 1999. It is about powers for a purpose – I believe it so we can get on with doing things.’

The timing of the Welsh Labour leadership election could not have come at a worst time for the One Wales Government. Rhodri Morgan will still be in place when the All Wales Convention reports next month, but the decision as to how to proceed with its conclusions will rest with his successor.

It is unlikely that any of the three candidates would want to upset the rank and file so early in their tenure and with a General Election looming, nor will the role of the Secretary of State for Wales be insignificant in this process.

Although the odds of a referendum taking place within the timescale allotted by the One Wales Agreement remain good, there appear to be significant factors at play that may well sabotage this happening. It is no wonder that Plaid Cymru are getting jittery.

Poll, er, explorers

Freedom Central — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 23:29:00 +0000

So, if tonight’s BBC poll shows 53% would vote yes at a referendum, why exactly are we waiting?

The preferendum question – which asked what your preferred constitutional settlement would be – is worthy of more analysis.

21% prefer the status quo! That’s one in five people polled, think the current system is (let’s be charitable) the least worst option. They’ve obviously never tried to draft an Assembly Measure! Or establish exactly what the government of Wales can do. Perhaps Peter Hain was one of the people polled? And 200 constitutional lawyers? Or dare we suggest that 21% have no idea what the status quo is?

As usual in these polls, around 10% back independence of some form (8% in EU, 5% outside). But most hearteningly, 34% support law making and tax varying powers. Discounting the notion that Tomorrow’s Wales has been in any way effective in promoting this, or that 340 people in a poll of 1000 odd have read the Richard Commission’s report, that means that a lot of people have reached this position largely on their own.

But here’s the paradox. If the policy position of the Welsh Liberal Democrats (law making and tax varying powers) is – by some distance – the preferred option of the people of Wales, why is it that in polling asking which party has the best policies on devolution, it was one of our weakest scoring areas?

Answers on a postcard to Freedom Central… (or below, obviously)

Y Barcud Oren #3

Gareth Aubrey — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 14:51:00 +0000

A new year naturally focuses minds on new things and Wales has been no different in this respect. But the contrast between the official story and the reality in January has been stark…

The Bandwagon Departs

That official story began in the unusual surroundings of the Seaside Social and Labour Club in Port Talbot, which hosted the first public consultation event of the All-Wales Convention. This was a moment of such earth-shattering importance that the BBC even wheeled out Wyre Davies to cover it on the Six O’Clock News (in probably the first national news story about Welsh devolution since the Assembly elections 18 months ago). Then again, what self-respecting journalist would turn down a free curry, as offered to everyone who took part in the consultation?

The carnival will wend its way around Wales for the next six months, trailing speculation in its wake, for as the One Wales government continues to haemorrhage policies, the Convention’s verdict could be the straw that breaks its back. Only time, tide and tikka massala will tell.

L’Etat, C’est Murphy

Of course, worrying about whether there’s enough public support before changing the devolution settlement does rather depend on the existing settlement having any credibility whatsoever, and that ship sailed before the convention even got going.

For the uninitiated, the Assembly is empowered to pass measures on policy areas defined in Schedule 5 of the Government of Wales Act 2006. The Act also allows the Assembly to apply for new areas to be defined through a Legislative Competency Order (LCO, pronounced elco). The LCO process has been a bumpy road from the start, what with the rows about the complexity of the process, and the turf war between Welsh MPs and the Assembly.

The test case for the tension has been the Affordable Housing LCO, in which the Assembly is asking for powers relating to right-to-buy. MPs were concerned that the powers proposed would allow the Assembly not only to suspend right-to-buy (as the Welsh Assembly Government – or WAG – says it wants to) but to abolish it outright. AMs responded that if powers were to be devolved, they had to be devolved in full, not with speculative caveats attached.

The final compromise, announced a few days before the Convention began, took things to a whole other level. The full powers will be devolved, but the Secretary of State for Wales will retain a veto over abolition of right-to-buy, giving that office a constitutional role it has never had before. WAG views it as a meaningless gesture as it has no intention of abolishing anyway, but giving anti-devolution MP’s a way to post roadblocks could well be the thin end of the wedge.

Gareth Aubrey is a councillor in Cardiff and blogs at Long Despairing Young Something. Y Barcud Oren appears fortnightly at Liberal Democrat Voice and cross-posted at Freedom Central