Freedom Central » Guerrilla Welsh-Fare

This week I have mostly been reading…

Matt O'Grady — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 22:42:54 +0000

This week is over, it’s not coming back. It’s dead. This article will stand as a testament as to some of what happened. When history reviews it, historians will probably be confused and slightly disappointed before moving on to some sort of more accurate record instead. Hmm, that’s not a great opener.

Ah sod it, that’ll do.

Has Adam Price MP gone to America already? His blog has been unusually silent recently… In fact silence is a Plaid theme this week. Normally Plaid bloggers love to talk about how their esteemed leader is ‘single handedly saving the world economy’, ’beating the recession in Wales’ and ’12% more amazing than steak’. But this week, the Welsh Assembly’s Finance Committee pointed out that, basically, these claims are complete bollocks. A summary of why they are bollocks is given by Dylan Jones-Evans.

It had to be fairly galling for Plaid. How many times have they had to suck up to Labour Ministers and vote the right way to ensure the collective Government took credit and everyone looks good, particularly the Minister. But this time Plaid tried too hard, the amendments Plaid attempted to submit to the report were a bit too sycophantic and baseless. So Labour turned around and basically said ‘bugger that’, and instead voted through the report despite it being critical of the government. So Plaid have spent the last 18 months supporting Labour, and when they look for support of their own, they end up with the amazing sight of Chris Franks AM sat on his own in committee voting in support of his own leader, while everyone else smirks slightly and votes against him. Well done Plaid, you got such a good deal there.

As recently resurrected Labour bile machine Aneurin Glyndwr points out, much of the committees intolerance came from the fact that these amendments were from Plaid’s spin doctors, rather than their members on the committee. While this kind of activity tends to be common place in the rest of Assembly affairs, committees have retained some form of independence, and this is of course welcome. But obviously as with many things, Plaid don’t think that they deserve the same scrutiny as other parties. Well tough, you’re in government, expect to get it.

And on the subject of Aneurin Glyndwr, it needs pointing out that the site closing down was reported by me on Sunday. A full two days before Betsan Powys of the BBC, followed by Guerrilla Welsh-Fare and Welsh Ramblings. I think Vaughan Roderick blogged on it too but err…..I can’t read Welsh. Sorry.

But yes, I am leading the way in Welsh political journalism right now. I’m going to follow it up with the scoop on how Irene James is in fact a Kangaroo sent by a covert Kangaroo black-ops unit to bring down western civilisation. Snark, the Kangaroo over-lord is slightly disappointed with her performance though and her funding may not be renewed in the next budget round.

This week will finally see the publication of Sir Emyr Jones Parry and the All Wales Convention’s recommendation of whether the government should go for a referendum or not. As Lee Walters of the Bevan Foundation points out, it’s a pretty open secret that he is going to say ‘yes’, in some form or another. Guerrilla Welsh-Fare thinks that “there may be a lot of pressure on the One Wales Government to get the process underway”, an assertion that is probably correct. The question is who will end up unhappier by the government response, Labour MPs or Plaid AMs?

The Institute of Welsh Affairs has published a summary of some of the challenges facing the next First Minister. None are particularly surprising, as these are things that the Welsh Liberal Democrats have been pointing out for months. What we need is some clarity from the Labour leadership candidates on how they will address these issues, and if you saw Dragons Eye on Thursday, you’ll know not to expect that. Politics Cymru has a review of the debate, as well as pointing out that you are sad if you watched it. Which I agree with, and am aware that makes me sad.

But thanks to Simon Dyda we do know that Neil Kinnock will be backing Huw Lewis. Although Welsh Ramblings thinks that this might be ‘a kiss of death’. Apparently, Aneurin Bevan will also be backing Huw, despite being dead 49 years. Meanwhile Carwyn Jones has received backing from several senior trade unionists according to Wales Home. I would take a guess that they are all still alive.

Next week, I will not be reading any blogs. So I won’t be writing an article. If I can find a volunteer/bribe another author/deceive someone else into writing it, expect it to be probably a bit better.

But if you point out how much better it is, I will seek vengeance.

This week I have mostly been reading…

Matt O'Grady — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 23:29:37 +0000

Bored? Reading blogs? Do something more interesting with your time by attempting to track down a Badger and give it refuge before Elin Jones gets it. Or read this. The choice is yours.

Actually, Badgers don’t seem to be on the blogs which is a shame. Apparently the pointless slaughter of thousands of creatures isn’t important enough to talk about. This is what is.

Glyn Davies is of the opinion that David Cameron’s promise not to veto any request for a referendum on further powers “was a very big day for Welsh politics”. Well, Mr Davies may well be right, this is both significant and very welcome. The clarity going into the election was needed. Unsurprisingly Nick Bourne welcomes the announcement as well.

But it does highlight the sad reality of the Conservative party’s attitude to Wales. Apparently we should welcome their decision not to over-rule the decision of a democratically elected government with it’s own mandate to rule. Can he promise that his Secretary of State will not start pissing around with LCOs in the way that the current one does? That would be nice.

Does anyone remember about a year ago when Labour promised to revolutionise the internet with Aneurin Glyndwr? Lets be honest, it was forgettable at best. Well, when I tried to log onto it now it tells me I need a username and password and it is now an ‘online resource for Labour members in Wales’. Well, well done on revolutionising internet campaigning Labour. While Freedom Central goes from strength to strength, your attempt at a collective blog falls flat on it’s face. Is this whole paragraph a smug gloat? Yes, and unashamedly so.

Right, the X-Factor twins have just survived again. What the fucking fuck? Sorry, normal service will be resumed. If you can call this service normal.

As the month goes on, the donkey race is continuing. In less than a month we will know who the next First Minister is going to be. But with the All Wales Convention reporting soon, a prickly subject is raising it’s head and, according to Betsan Powys it could be a deal breaker. Let’s be honest, the main reason many Plaid members were happy to get into the sack with Labour was because of the promise of a referendum. The One Wales Document, that magic scroll with which this country is run, is very clear on this. It states in no uncertain terms that they will “proceed to a successful outcome to a referendum for full law-making powers under Part IV as soon as practicable, at or before the end of the Assembly term.” No mention there of ‘as long as Labour members agree.’ Two contenders, the most likely winners, seem to now be retrospectively adding such a condition.

I don’t think it would be too over the top to say that should the new First Minister decide to back out on this commitment then they would essentially be breaking the act and I don’t think many people would be particularly shocked if Plaid did decide to walk away from the Government. John Dixon, the Chair of Plaid Cymru is less worried however, and is “confident both parties understand exactly what they agreed to”, which may be the case, but do they understand what each other believes they agreed to?

What would that mean for the future of the Assembly Government? Lord bloody knows.

Rumours seem to be abound of a March election. Something I heard yesterday and also appearing on Tory MP David Jones blog. He isn’t wrong, the thought of a February campaign isn’t one that will fill many peoples hearts with joy. Ever tried to leaflet wearing gloves? Harder than it looks. Can we drum up the activists to put on a full campaign earlier in the year, oh yes. But some of us would rather not regardless!

We know that Rhodri Morgan isn’t going to be in the Government next year, but of course there is more than just one person that makes up the Government. Wales Home’s Daran Hill is right when he suggests that Rhodri’s governments have never changed drastically. For as long as I have paid any attention to Welsh politics there have been the staple faces of Jane Hutt, Jane Davidson, Andrew Davies, Brian Gibbons, Carwyn Jones and Edwina Hart. A quick check of wikipedia suggests that they have almost all always been involved in the government, or at least for the vast majority of the time of the Assembly.

Whoever does win, they will want to put their own stamp on the make up of the Government, and surely that has to involve more than simply just re-arranging the deck chairs. For once I agree with Guerilla Welsh Fare who questions who there is who is actually good enough to come into the Cabinet. Given that there are several cabinet members stepping down, now would be a good time to bring new talent in. I struggle to think of options for doing so. Thankfully I won’t be First Minister in a months time, not unless something goes seriously wrong somewhere anyway.

Over two months ago, an erudite, clever, smart, sexy, modest and just possibly slightly delusional individual pointed out that you could bet on the race for First Minister. Back then Ladbrokes were willing to offer 5/1 on Edwina Hart, and put Huw Lewis in second favourite.

This is no longer the case, as the latest odds are as follows:

Carwyn Jones: 4/9
Edwina Hart: 9/4
Huw Lewis: 7/1

Certainly not good news for the Lewis camp, whose chances may have been overstated by Ladbrokes in the first place. But good news for anyone who followed my advice to bet on Edwina. If you got 5/1 then this two horse race could be profitable. Should she win, I will have enough for 37 pints of tasty, tasty Kalt in the new pub in the bay.

Not that I am advising gambling and spending money on beer or anything. Only a reckless idiot would do that.

This week I have mostly been reading…

Matt O'Grady — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 20:05:37 +0000

I’m ill, and still blogging. That is commitment. Someone email me a lemsip.

As the contest to succeed Rhodri Morgan as Labour leader/First Minister begins, it’s obviously going to be the main subject on the blogs. We now have three declared candidates. Edwina Hart, Huw Lewis and Carwyn Jones. Not much surprise or inspiration there really. Carwyn Jones’ campaign website went live today and a formal declaration is probable tomorrow.

But there isn’t much agreement on who the eventual winner will be. Glyn Davies has first-hand experience in working with both Edwina and Carwyn during his time in the assembly. He is of the impression that it’s between the two of them and that it could be close.

But not everyone has written off Huw Lewis’s chances. Bethan Jenkins points out that he “is keen, floated ideas in various meetings and conferences, and has an eagerness to succeed”. She may be right, and if it does become a battle of ideas then that could easily play into his hands, and Carwyn would be pretty buggered. His answer to every Assembly question is the same “well, under the Tories it would be worse” – that’s not a bloody answer! .

But, it’s not the Plaid group that matters in this one, it’s the Labour group. As Guerrilla Welsh-Fare points out, Huw doesn’t exactly have the backing of the political stars of the Labour group. Can the backing of the likes of Karen Sinclair and Irene James really swing many votes his way? Probably not. But he does have the support of Tory MP David Jones. I’m sure he is grateful. Edwina and Carwyn are both yet to declare exactly who their six are, assuming they have them all signed up by now!

But as Betsan Powys highlights, there are more than just Assembly Members involved in this. There are more Labour MPs than AMs and their votes will count the same in Labour’s strange electoral college type thingy.

And so to the odds this week:

Carwyn Jones: Evens (still)
Huw Lewis: 5/2
Edwina Hart: 7/2
Jane Hutt: 14/1

……has anyone even bothered to ask Jane Hutt if she is planning on running? Someone should email her and check or something. I guess it doesn’t matter either way.

Swansea based blogger Inside Out suggests settling the contest with pistols. The one problem with that is it would create by-elections, and we’re all too busy for that!

The Institute of Welsh Affairs point out that the ban on dual candidates could end up coming back to haunt Labour, given that both Edwina and Carywn are at serious risk of losing their seats to the Tories in 18 months time. We all know that the ban was implemented for party political reasons and to save Labour cabinet members blushes, could they really consider u-turning on this for political reasons as well?

I’m not really a fan of the latest campaign by the BMA to remove sunbeds from all Welsh Leisure Centres. I suppose my issue with this is on two levels. In moderation, there is nothing particularly harmful about them. If someone wants to pay the council to help them get a tan before they go on holiday then there isn’t anything wrong with that, although I think it‘s a fairly odd concept of getting a tan before you go on holiday! But there are many providers of tanning facilities, it’s not like removing them from council properties is going to stop people from using them. There is a second issue, as highlighted by Peter Black on this site, that the revenue raised by these facilities reduces the amount of subsidy they require from the council.

According to Politics Cymru, Vaughan Roderick has blogged on the possible general election results. Given my knowledge of Welsh I will have to take their word for it. The results stem from the Politics Home survey of marginal constituencies. It doesn’t make exactly comfortable reading for the Lib Dems, with a prediction of us losing Ceredigion and not making any gains. But given this week also included the first poll in 27 years that put us ahead of Labour, you have to wonder how credible any poll is that thinks that we won’t take Swansea West and Newport East in these circumstances? But then again, I would say that wouldn’t I?

I don’t agree with Sweet and Tender Hooligan that Plaid and the SNP should participate in the potential debate between party leaders in advance of the general election. There is a simple reason for this. It is a debate between potential Prime Ministers. If a Party is not standing enough candidates to actually even hypothetically win the election, then how can they claim they should be part of a Prime Minister’s debate? Welsh and Scottish debates should take place, but during Welsh and Scottish general elections when their candidates could potentially become the next First Minister, not during an election they are not even trying to win.

Right, I’m going to go sit on my sofa and feel sorry for myself. And get snot everywhere. Yeah, that was what you wanted to picture right now.

This week I have mostly been reading….

Matt O'Grady — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 23:57:34 +0000

Much thanks to Jeremy ‘the bane of Bala’ Townsend for filling in for me last week. I was either drunk or busy. I forget which.

And it’s Freedom Central’s own Jeremy that I will start by writing about. In case you missed it, and given that it is now the second most read post on this blog, you probably didn’t, Jeremy wrote an extensive post on how to protect, and indeed improve, the Welsh arts sector. He argued that politicians should attempt to stay out of the arguments surrounding the arts, as they “know little about the situation.”

Obviously, this meant a politician had to pile into the argument. Adam Price MP stated that the arms length model outlined in Jeremy’s piece would be “unaccountable and so prone to elitism” before continuing his arguments a few days later arguing that as a party we have now “possibly overtaken the Welsh Conservatives as the most anglicised party in Wales”.

While Jeremy and Adam Price did manage to keep the argument at a reasonably intellectual level (meaning most of it went over my head) Guerrilla Welsh-Fare decided to ignore the point all together and have a nice little rant based upon very little actual substance. He also found a way to attack Peter Black while he was at it. Obviously I wouldn’t expect much else.

Angry Oli Townsend of Cardiff Student Lib Dems also weighed into the argument, sticking up for his big brother (awww), arguing that the term ‘anglo-centric’ distracts from the real political arguments underway.

The other big story of the week, which may be in part due to the summer recess, is those comments by Daniel Hannan MEP. What irks me about this story, is that every party, including our own, has those who are not on message or make stupid comments. Every party is a broad church with members on the left and the right. The Tories are not exempt from this. Yes, Daniel Hannan’s comments were stupid and he should be ashamed. But for people to attempt to represent them as the real view of the Conservative’s (such as Labour site Aneurin Glyndwr) is nothing more than just attempting to mis-represent another party’s position. Many have done it to our party. I remember a Plaid freshers fair leaflet that quoted one backbench MSP on local income tax, and claimed that this meant our entire party didn’t agree with it, which was obviously bollocks. Such claims just dilute real political debate and piss-off the public. We know that a Tory victory would be bad for the NHS, but we don’t need to use Hannan’s comments to make these claims. He will damage the Tories enough, other parties don’t need to then spin that past the truth.

I could write a lot more about the NHS stuff as there is a lot on the blogs this week. But all seem to agree that the NHS is good and FOX News and/or Daniel Hannan are crazy. I’d rather spend more time talking about Wales specific stuff than what is happening in America.

Away from politics, Glyn Davies gives us his thoughts on the upcoming football season. My own predictions are Man United to take the crown, with Burnley, Portsmouth and Wolves relegated. Wolves will be bottom. Promoted will be Newcastle followed by West Brom, although as an Albion fan I hope to be wrong.

I don’t think it is a shock to anyone that Plaid and the Lib Dem’s don’t always see eye to eye, at least according to Daran Hill of Wales Home. Nor is it a shock that the two parties actually have much in common, on a range of policies which you would think would make us natural allies. Personally, I do not see Plaid as the enemy, or at least on nothing more than a ‘can we take votes in this ward’ level. My personal preference would be for a Plaid-led government over a Labour or Tory led one. If it was possible to have a Plaid/Lib Dem coalition in 2007, I firmly believe it could have been a fantastic and progressive government for Wales (second only to a majority Lib Dem one), however this was not a possibility, nor is it likely to be one in the immediate future.

From what I have seen of the way that decisions are taken on what our Assembly Members will be doing in plenary each week, or how press releases will be spun, there is no stated tactic of attacking Plaid. It just so happens that many of the areas where the government is failing the most, like the economy and housing, are the areas where the Plaid Ministers are in charge. Until their departments improve, expect the attacks to continue. But if they do, then do not be surprised when the Welsh Lib Dems move on to other topics and attacking other parties.

I don’t know how Plaid view us, although according to Simon Dyda, it is with a mixture of ‘pity and amusement’. Feel free to underestimate us if you want. It’ll make taking votes from you easier.

Linking to Adam Price MP for the third time in one article, he gives ten effects of a Tory Westminster Government on Wales. While I would agree with the majority of his points, number three amuses me. Apparently a Tory win would mean a delay or possible rejection of a demand for a referendum on further powers, on the grounds of not wanting to split the Conservative Party. This is of course completely different to the Labour party, who are categorically not delaying a referendum to stop a split between the Assembly group and the Westminster group.

Not many subjects covered this week, but tough. There was also a post by the BMA which mentions alcohol pricing, but I’d rather talk about that in an individual post, if I get a chance tomorrow.

Enjoy your week. Or don’t. Up to you really.

This fortnight I have mostly been reading….

Matt O'Grady — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 20:10:12 +0000

Apologies for no update last week. My excuse is that I was both tired and busy. Never a good combination for getting things done that I can get away with putting off. Which also explains why I had a lot of laundry to do this weekend. This has to be one of the most exciting opening paragraphs ever written. I’m guessing you probably don’t wanna hear about my sock shortage, so on to blogs.

Alan Ap Huw is one of few blogs that looks at the effects of the sacking of Sian Caiach as Plaid PPC for Ogmore. While he maybe getting a little too over excited about the prospect of this being the start of a break-up of Plaid in the South West, I do find myself agreeing that there is a strange silence from many in the Welsh blogosphere on the issue (aside from on here of course!). It seems there are many bloggers who will take any slight difference of opinion on a matter as meaning an entire party is split (such as Guerrilla Welsh-Fare’s Che Grav-ara), but when there is a genuine, sizeable and increasing split in Plaid it barely warrants a mention.

Maybe it’s because I struggle to see how Plaid can defend their actions that I find it strange that there is a silence. I am proud to belong to a party where if you disagree with the leader you’re more likely to get put on stage and given a chance to talk to members, who will then probably clap you regardless for at least having the balls to say it, than to get kicked out. So to see another party that the Lib Dems are sometimes compared to, and with whom we do share a sizeable amount of agreement on policy, act in this way just confuses me. If anyone in Plaid agrees with this and thinks that a party should be able to actually debate issues and that their leaders should listen to their members, I suggest they click here.

S4C2 will no longer be showing the Assembly proceedings live. According to the Bevan Foundation this may not be mourned in the pubs in Wales, but is ‘a retrograde step’. With ITV cutting back on their news coverage of Wales, and the promised welsh language newspaper apparently dead in the water, you have to wonder how anyone is going to hear about what is happening in the Senedd?

This is also the first blog summary since “that” report. So I should probably look at some of the blog responses to it. The Cynical Dragon lists the main recommendations. Tom Bodden points out that the report will actually save very little money, although this was never really its aim. It would be interesting to compare how much the report cost compared to expected savings though, and will this really restore confidence in Assembly Members? Will AMs continue to get the same level of public distain thanks to their Westminster colleagues? Could as much have been achieved by just allowing the public stoning of an AM found to have abused the system by more than £9.70? “Nick Ramsey’s bought another bed, I’m gonna need some granite for this.” I’m sure S4C2 would at least cover that.

Has enough pressure come off Nick Bourne that he can actually start to lead his party again? Apparently so. He has proposed that the top position on regional lists should be reserved for female or ethnic minority candidates. It is something that the Welsh Lib Democrats have debated for years, but always resisted. In the Assembly at least we have no problem with balance. With a female leader, a female Chief Exec and a female president, maybe we should consider other options! Will these proposals lead to more female Tory AMs, without a doubt. But in a truly modern and representative party these steps are not needed, and as such are an admission of defeat in themselves.

After writing that sentence, I read Glyn Davies comments on it. He agrees with me.

It was certainly interesting to read Carwyn Jones’ views on assisted suicide. The post had clearly been carefully constructed to not be seen to be making the case for the whole scale legalisation of euthanasia. He poses difficult questions about where the line should be drawn, citing the case of the couple who recently took their own lives in Switzerland, where one of the two was not terminally ill or in considerable pain. I find myself agreeing with much of what he says, although maybe he stops short of my own opinion. Remember though, we are talking about someone who is one of the favourites to be the next First Minister of Wales. Will this be an issue that he will actively take up with his Westminster colleagues if he were to be successful?

Both Adam Price and Peter Black seem to think tomorrow will be an interesting occasion, when News International go in front of the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee in Westminister. Among them will be Tory Spin Chief Andy Coulson. I suspect that when I come to writing this article next week we’ll know a bit more about what happened, and of course the big question – will Mr Coulson be able to flatly deny in front of the committee that he had nothing to do with it?

An amusing piece of gossip on Valleys Mam is that apparently Jonathan Morgan left plenary early to go watch the new Harry Potter film. In his defense, I would have done the same.

There are two issues I’m not gonna talk about. I’m not gonna mention the IBW expenses, because enough has already been said on Freedom Central about it.

I’m not gonna mention the National Transport Plan either, because I think the issue is so dull it may cause mild cases of swine flu. (Now might be a good time to mention that this piece is my personal opinion, and not the opinion of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Freedom Central or pretty much anyone else with an IQ over 17.)

I hope this has helped inform you of what is going on in Wales at the moment. It probably didn’t though. Go read some posts by real bloggers instead.