Freedom Central » Referendum

One Wales starts to unravel in heat of Labour leadership contest

Peter Black — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:32:52 +0000

With Peter Hain already fighting a rearguard action to forestall a referendum it seems that the Welsh Labour leadership election has caused a full scale retreat from the commitments in the One Wales agreement by at least two of the potential successors to Rhodri Morgan and some significant prefarication by the third.

In a debate between the three candidates on ITV last night Huw Lewis made it clear that he would not push for an early referendum on new powers if he wins the contest. The formula he has devised to frustrate his potential cabinet colleagues is one poll at a time:

‘It would be reckless and wrong for a Labour leader to take their eye off the ball, and the ball in play is ‘Let’s stop the Tories gaining power at the next general election,” he said.

But Plaid Cymru director of elections, Helen Mary Jones was not amused. She said Labour had committed to supporting a referendum before 2011 when the two parties agreed to share power in the One Wales pact, that there had already been enough consultation and that the Government now needed to get on with it:

‘This isn’t a matter for internal party politics. People like Huw Lewis need to remember that the deal was supported by the overwhelming majority of his party rank and file as it was by mine… The timing of the referendum should depend on the Convention’s advice and when the referendum is most likely to be won and not on an election to another place.’

Carwyn Jones also backtracked on the agreement he had signed up to as a Government Minister, keen not to lose the vote of the 15 MPs he has already signed up to support him. He told the programme´s viewers that it is essential there is ‘broad agreement within the Labour Party’ before the pre-referendum campaign begins:

‘It’s important that we actually talk to our colleagues in Westminster and talk to our party members and to the trade unions so they feel part of the process.

‘It would be a very bad move if it was simply Labour AMs who were seen as moving the process towards a referendum without consulting without anyone else in the party.’

Even Edwina Hart was cautious, saying that the decision to go ahead with a campaign would have to be discussed within the coalition cabinet and individual parties. She did though stress her own record as a supporter of new powers, saying: ‘I have been before the Assembly was even established back in 1999. It is about powers for a purpose – I believe it so we can get on with doing things.’

The timing of the Welsh Labour leadership election could not have come at a worst time for the One Wales Government. Rhodri Morgan will still be in place when the All Wales Convention reports next month, but the decision as to how to proceed with its conclusions will rest with his successor.

It is unlikely that any of the three candidates would want to upset the rank and file so early in their tenure and with a General Election looming, nor will the role of the Secretary of State for Wales be insignificant in this process.

Although the odds of a referendum taking place within the timescale allotted by the One Wales Agreement remain good, there appear to be significant factors at play that may well sabotage this happening. It is no wonder that Plaid Cymru are getting jittery.

Senior Plaid figure admits referendum ‘frankly unlikely’

Ali Goldsworthy — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 01:58:12 +0000

I spent most of yesterday at Compass’ annual conference in London. It was really interesting with a broad spectrum of progressive speakers attending; Lib Dems, Nationalists and Greens with the biggest slice being Labour. There are moves to get the organisation doing more in Wales – definitely a good thing.

For once at a national event Wales wasn’t forgotten about either. There were a number of sessions on devolution including one attended by the Director of the Institute of Welsh Affairs, John Osmond. He, of course, came close to winning Preseli for Plaid at the last election and is one of their leading thinkers.

A question came in around the referendums on devolution and John admitted that the referendum on the further transfer of powers to the Welsh Assembly was ‘frankly unlikely’ in this term of office. The smart money, he thought, was on the 2/3 majority required to ask for a referendum on further powers to come late next year. By then it’s likely there will be a Tory Welsh Secretary. They need to give permission for a the referendum to happen within sixty days – watch the Tories go into a tailspin as they finally confront the issues of devolution which they have been dodging inelegantly for years.

If the Tories go into a tailspin what will happen to Plaid? This is the most senior figure I have heard suggest the referendum won’t happen. It was a key part of the deal to go into Labour, ‘One Wales’ promised a referendum ‘as soon as practicable and on (or before) the end of the Assembly term in 2011‘. Their AM’s have been pushing for it ever since and in recent weeks influential members* have called for them to back out of the coalition because they are unhappy.

The importance of this referendum to Plaid’s members (elected and otherwise) shouldn’t be underestimated. Their leader has claimed they put the debate for more powers on the agenda with the ‘One Wales’ agreement. It is a claim that is beginning to look rather hollow now.

This comes on top of Plaid u-turning on top up fees. Plaid members (elected and otherwise) must be asking themselves which bits of their manifesto they are going to get implemented. Right now, it looks like it’s a Labour Government propped up by Plaid who are hanging out in a blind alley.

Update: My bad. I’ve edited this. Initially it linked to a post by Alwyn about how Plaid should walk out of the Coalition if they couldn’t get the referendum. He says isn’t a member of Plaid anymore (I think, as long as I’m reading it right) here. So I have altered the link and the reference.

Poll, er, explorers

Freedom Central — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 23:29:00 +0000

So, if tonight’s BBC poll shows 53% would vote yes at a referendum, why exactly are we waiting?

The preferendum question – which asked what your preferred constitutional settlement would be – is worthy of more analysis.

21% prefer the status quo! That’s one in five people polled, think the current system is (let’s be charitable) the least worst option. They’ve obviously never tried to draft an Assembly Measure! Or establish exactly what the government of Wales can do. Perhaps Peter Hain was one of the people polled? And 200 constitutional lawyers? Or dare we suggest that 21% have no idea what the status quo is?

As usual in these polls, around 10% back independence of some form (8% in EU, 5% outside). But most hearteningly, 34% support law making and tax varying powers. Discounting the notion that Tomorrow’s Wales has been in any way effective in promoting this, or that 340 people in a poll of 1000 odd have read the Richard Commission’s report, that means that a lot of people have reached this position largely on their own.

But here’s the paradox. If the policy position of the Welsh Liberal Democrats (law making and tax varying powers) is – by some distance – the preferred option of the people of Wales, why is it that in polling asking which party has the best policies on devolution, it was one of our weakest scoring areas?

Answers on a postcard to Freedom Central… (or below, obviously)